Losing our cool: Canada’s ski industry in a warmer world
by Daniel Scott and Natalie Knowles
Dr. Daniel Scott is a Professor at the University of Waterloo who has worked extensively on sustainable tourism, with a focus on adaptation to the complex impacts of a changing climate and the transition to a low carbon tourism economy. Nat Knowles holds a PhD in Geography and a passion for exploring the wild landscapes and diverse cultures of the world, from Indigenous-led tropical forest conservation in the Brazilian Amazon to climate science in Canada’s mountain communities.
This past winter, late and unusual snowfall, warm temperatures and rain, and challenges with snowmaking meant talk of climate change was heard in lift lines across Canada, with green and muddy slopes surfacing across social media. Long considered the outdoor industry’s “canary in the coal mine” of climate change, the visible impacts of our first experience with a +1.5°C warmer world on Canada’s mountains and snow sports gave us an unsettling preview of the future. As we approach the 2024-25 season, our mountains are showing us the urgency to meet our Paris Agreement targets to reach net zero carbon emissions in the next twenty-five years.
Photo: Daniel Scott
While the ski industry may not be a priority for policy makers amidst the climate crisis, Canada’s multi-billion-dollar ski industry directly provides jobs for approximately forty-thousand Canadians [1], is a major tourism brand for the country, and is vital to the economies of many mountain destination communities. As winters have warmed in the past decade, and early season snowmaking has become more challenging, ski visits across Canada have declined from 18.6 million (2009-2014 annual average) to 18.4 million (2015-2019) with declining visitation in Quebec and static visitation across Alberta and Ontario [2].While this example points to the risks of warming winters, there is much uncertainty about the implications of multiple consecutive climate shortened seasons for ski visits and participation. Evidence suggests we are now past the era of peak ski seasons, as all scenarios point to a shorter and more variable ski season in the decades ahead. Considering the salience of climate change for the ski industry, how our mountain destinations respond to climate change risks will have far-reaching implications for sport, tourism, livelihoods, real estate, and community economic resilience.
A snow cannon at the Canmore Nordic Centre, Alberta, 2007.
Regional Futures for Canada’s Ski Industry
Although international climate goals speak broadly of limiting global warming below +2°C, regional warming and related climate impacts vary widely, and are more pronounced in mountain regions. Our research shows important implications for all of Canada’s largest regional ski markets in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. New research out this year, found ski areas in BC currently have slightly longer average seasons (156 days) compared to Alberta (averaging 153), yet in all future climate scenarios Alberta becomes more climate resilient. Under high-emission futures consistent with current global emission trends, even with advanced snowmaking, average ski seasons in Alberta are projected to decline an average of 16% (to 128 days), while BC seasons decline 21% (down to 122 days). A low-emission future limits average ski season reductions to 8% in Alberta and 16% in BC. Ski areas in low-elevation and coastal BC regions are projected to have stronger negative impacts. Positively, when compared with other North American and international markets, the ski industry in Western Canada has lower climate change risk and opportunities to gain market share in some destinations. Ski markets in Eastern Canada are very different in terms of snowfall, ski terrain and snowmaking capacities, and have diverse climate change risks. Quebec remains relatively resilient, with its current 137-day average ski season only reduced to between 116-121 days by 2050 (-12 to 15% in low and high emission futures respectively). Conversely, Ontario’s more southern ski areas and impacts on Great Lakes effect snow/rainfall result in losses of between 12-21% of its current 117-day season (-12 to 21%).
Snow-making reservoir from Whistler Mountain Peak Chair. Photo: Ruth Hartnup, 2007
Is Snowmaking Sustainable?
Since its development in 1952, the ski industry has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in snowmaking to extend ski seasons and increase resilience to climate variability and now climate change. As climate change accelerates and natural snowpacks become more variable in mountain regions, ski industry leaders intend to further invest in improved snowmaking as a core adaptation strategy. A global market research firm projects that investment in snowmaking is projected to grow at a 4.6-5.7% annual rate over the next decade [3].The sustainability of snowmaking has been questioned by environmental groups concerned with high water and energy use. With very little research on snowmaking sustainability, we undertook the first national assessment of snowmaking. We estimated that 237 ski areas across Canada currently use 478,000 megawatts (MWh) of electricity (with 130,095 tonnes of associated CO2 missions) and 43.4 million m3 of water to produce over 42 million m3 of snow annually. Without incorporating any growth in new snowmaking terrain and infrastructure, national snowmaking requirements are projected to increase 55-97% by 2050 (low and high emission futures), with energy and water use increasing proportionally. Importantly, an estimated 80-90% of water used for snowmaking returns to the same watershed in spring and is a non-consumptive use. As ski areas invest in more efficient snowmaking systems, we estimate that if all ski areas can achieve water use of the most efficient observed ski areas, total water use would remain the same as today, even with significant growth in snowmaking requirements. The source and carbon-intensity of electricity is a major influence on the sustainability of snowmaking. The carbon intensity of Alberta’s electricity grid mean it is currently responsible for 96% of the carbon emissions associated with snowmaking in Canada. Positively, these emissions will drop massively as Alberta decarbonizes its grid over the next two decades. In Quebec, with nearly 100% hydro and other renewable sources, snowmaking has virtually no carbon footprint. The low-carbon grids in Ontario and BC similarly limit CO2 emissions. In fact, by making millions of annual skier visits in Ontario and Quebec possible, snowmaking helps to minimize ski tourism related travel emissions. We estimated that the annual carbon footprint of Quebec’s snowmaking is about the same as only sixty-seven skiers flying from Montreal to Vancouver to ski at Whistler. Changes in emissions and water use will need to be re-assessed dynamically alongside community sustainable development goals as climate change accelerates and decarbonization targets are pursued
Fostering climate Resilience in Canada’s Ski Industry
Like ski tourism markets globally, Canada’s ski destinations will continue to face accelerating climate change, with cascading implications across their often-fragile alpine ecosystems and mountain communities. The good news is that, across all ski areas, low-emission scenarios where the world achieves its Paris Agreement targets result in significantly better futures for Canada’s ski industry and destinations. Just as our mountains are foreshadowing change, they are inspiring Canada’s skiers, its outdoor industry, and mountain destinations to accelerate climate action and increasingly engage in climate advocacy and activism.
References
1. Canadian Ski Council. (2019). Facts + Stats. http://www.skicanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Facts-andStats-2018-19-final.pdf
2. Ibid.
3. Persistence Market Research. (2018). Snowmaking system market. Global market study on snowmaking systems: developments in theme based tourism activities to drive growth across various regional markets, July. https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/market-research/snow-making-system-market.asp
Further resources
Scott, D., Steiger, R., Knowles, N., & Fang, Y. (2019). Regional ski tourism risk to climate change: An inter-comparison of Eastern Canada and US Northeast markets. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 28(4), 568–586. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2019.1684932
Knowles, N., Scott, D., & Steiger, R. (2023). Sustainability of snowmaking as climate change (mal)adaptation: an assessment of water, energy, and emissions in Canada’s ski industry. Current Issues in Tourism, 27(10), 1613–1630. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2023.2214358
Knowles NLB, Scott D, Steiger R. Climate Change and the Future of Ski Tourism in Canada’s Western Mountains. Tourism and Hospitality. 2024; 5(1):187-202. https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp5010013
Knowles, N., Scott, D. (2024) Advancing ski tourism transformations to climate change: A multi-stakeholder participatory approach in diverse Canadian destinations. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 5(2), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2024.10013